The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has advised Kenyans to brace for a drier day as the October-November-December short rains come to an end.
The department has also urged farmers to adopt moisture-conserving measures in their lands to avoid losing their produce during the expected dry spell.
This is after the weatherman released its climate outlook for the short rains that showed November (traditionally the peak of the OND rains) was unusually dry in most parts of the country.
In addition, the forecast for December indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average rains.
“The anticipated near-to-below rainfall in the ASALs is likely to reduce soil moisture, affecting crop growth and pasture availability. The near-to-below-normal rainfall, coupled with poor spatial distribution, may negatively affect crop production over most parts, especially over parts of the Central and Eastern sectors of the country, including the Coastal region,” reads the forecast signed by KMD acting Director Edward Muriuki.
“Farmers are advised to implement water conservation practices such as mulching and monitor soil moisture closely. Livestock producers should prepare for potential water and fodder shortages by storing feed and ensuring water points are well-maintained.”
In terms of rainfall distribution for the month of December, Nyeri is among the counties expected to receive near to below or depressed rains.
Generally, rainfall distribution, both in time and space for this month is expected to be poor in most parts of the country.
“Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya (Nairobi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Turkana and Tharaka Nithi counties) will experience intermittent rainfall with some breaks during the month (December). The total rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for December,” read the outlook.
The counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Nyamira, West Pokot, Bomet, Laikipia, Narok, Kericho, Bungoma and Busia are also expected to have rainfall to be near the long-term average amounts for the month of December.
Communities living in the ASAL regions have been advised to come up with water preservation measures during the coming three months to avert a possible loss of their stock due to drought.
In terms of health impacts, health officials have been advised to sensitise the public to the need to observe proper sanitation standards to avert outbreaks of diseases.
The Department has warned that owing to the below-average rainfall and dry conditions in most areas, the risk of heat stress and vector-borne disease is not a remote possibility.
“Public health advisories should emphasise proper hydration, safe food handling, and vector control measures such as mosquito net use and environmental sanitation. In areas where occasional rainfall may lead to localised flooding, stagnant water may create favourable conditions for the spread of vector-borne diseases. Conversely, in regions experiencing extended dry and dusty spells – particularly in the northern parts of the country – there may be an increased risk of respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases due to compromised hygiene and water scarcity,” stated KMD.
In October this year, KMD had warned of heavy rains in selected parts of the country during the October –November –December rains.
Some of the areas that were expected to experience heavy downpours included those in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the West of the Rift Valley and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, according to the weather advisory released on October 22 2025.
Among counties that had been put on high alert from the expected downpour were Kisumu, Nyeri, Bomet, Isiolo, Nairobi, Turkana, Mandera, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo and Murang’a.
Overall, a total of 39 counties had been placed on high alert.
“Rainfall currently affecting parts of the Lake Basin, the Rift Valley and the Highlands west of the Rift Valley is expected to intensify to more than 30mm in 24 hours and spread to the Highlands of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi and parts of the Southeastern lowlands on Thursday, 23 October 2025. This is likely to mark the onset of the Short Rains Season (OND) 2025 over several parts of the country expect over parts of the Southern lowlands and the coastal region, as indicated in the OND 2025 Forecast,” read the statement, signed by then KMD acting Director Kennedy Thiong’o.
People residing in the listed regions had been advised on the need to take precautionary measures during the rainy season to avert possible water-related catastrophes.
The advisory was also shared with relevant emergency response agencies, including the Presidency, the Kenya Red Cross, the National Disaster Management Operations Center, the National Disaster Management Unit, Media and the Council of Governors for proper preparedness and response in case of disaster.
“Floodwaters may appear in places where it has not rained heavily, especially downstream. People are advised to avoid driving through or walking in moving water and open fields and not to shelter under trees and near grilled windows to minimise exposure to lightning strikes. People in landslide-prone areas, especially in the slopes of the Aberdare ranges, Mt Kenya and other sloppy areas over the western region, should be on high alert,” continued the advisory.
The regions bordering the Highlands West of the the Rift Valley, the Lake Basin, the Central Rift Valley, the Northwest and most parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley were expected to receive near- to above-average rainfall.
“The outlook for October 2025 indicates that the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Northwest, most parts of the Highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), and isolated areas in Marsabit are likely to experience near- to above-average rainfall. In contrast, most of the Southeastern lowlands, the southern coast, a few areas of the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, isolated areas of the Northeast and much of the Coastal region are expected to receive near- to below-average rainfall,” continued the update.
Nyeri, Murang’a, Embu, Meru, Nairobi, Kiambu, Tharaka Nithi and parts of Laikipia were among the counties expected to receive rains near to or above the long-term average for the month.
By Samuel Maina
