Rainfall during the March–May long rains season in Kajiado County is expected to be erratic, marked by prolonged dry spells and occasional isolated, intense storms.
According to Benson Lubanga, the County Director of Meteorological Services, the season will be influenced by tropical cyclones and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, leading to uneven rainfall distribution across the county.
“These systems are likely to cause near-average to above-average rainfall in some areas and near-average to below-average rainfall in others. However, their effects will be short-lived and will be closely monitored,” said Mr Lubanga.
He noted that northern and upper western sub-counties are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, while eastern, central-south and lower western parts may experience near-average to below-average precipitation.
Residents were urged to harvest and store rainwater whenever it rains, as prolonged dry spells are expected between rainfall episodes.
For the northern and upper western regions, rains are projected to begin in the second to third week of March, while the eastern, central-south and lower western regions are expected to receive their first rains in the third to fourth week of March. The season is likely to end in the third to fourth week of May.
Meteorologists have also warned that temperatures will remain higher than average throughout the season.
The forecast was presented during a two-day participatory climate scenario planning workshop organised by the county government in partnership with the Kenya Climate Change Working Group, the Kenya Meteorological Department, and Heifer International.
The scientific forecast aligns with Indigenous Traditional Knowledge shared by traditional weather experts.
After conducting traditional observations, including the examination of a slaughtered sheep, elders predicted above-average rainfall.
“According to the alignment of the sheep’s intestines, the county will receive above-average rainfall that may cause rivers to swell and dams to overflow,” said Moses Ole Nkinaai, a traditional weather expert.
He added that star alignments also indicate a mid-March onset of the rains.
Meanwhile, John Kioli of the Kenya Climate Change Working Group called on the government to implement long-term drought mitigation measures to prevent recurrent human and livestock losses linked to climate change.
“The cycle of drought and food insecurity keeps repeating. Sustainable solutions are urgently needed,” he said.
The outlook comes against the backdrop of poor performance of the 2025 short rains, which were characterized by late and unclear onset, below-normal rainfall and poor spatial distribution.
As a result, the county experienced poor regeneration of pasture, inadequate recharge of water sources and widespread crop failure.
By December 2025, the National Drought Management Authority had classified Kajiado County under the alert drought phase, calling for close monitoring.
Kajiado West and Kajiado Central were identified as drought hotspots, with about 63,400 people projected to require urgent food assistance.
The national government has since rolled out food support programmes, including in-kind relief and cash transfers, across all arid and semi-arid counties.
By Diana Meneto
