Kajiado County is staring at a potentially devastating drought as meteorologists warn of poor rainfall distribution and below-average precipitation during the crucial October-November-December 2025 “short rains” season.
County Director of Meteorological Services Benson Lubang’a Ogada yesterday issued a stark warning that the upcoming season would be characterized by erratic rains, prolonged dry spells and warmer-than-average temperatures, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of farmers and pastoralists.
The forecast indicates a 55-90% probability of mild drought conditions and a 20-55 per cent chance of severe drought across the region, raising alarm bells for food security in the county.
“The message for the October-November-December 2025 season is one of caution. We must plan and prepare for a season that is likely to be drier and hotter than normal,” Ogada warned during the release of the county-specific climate outlook.
The meteorologist revealed that consistent rains are only expected to begin in the third to fourth week of November 2025, representing a significant delay from the normal onset. The season is projected to end around the third to fourth week of December, pointing to a shortened growing period.
“We anticipate prolonged dry spells throughout the season, punctuated by potentially intense but isolated storms. The distribution of rainfall will be generally poor in both time and space, meaning the rains will be erratic and unreliable,” Ogada explained.
The forecast was developed through a Participatory Scenario Planning process that combines national data from the Kenya Meteorological Department with local expertise and indigenous traditional knowledge specific to Kajiado’s unique terrain.
Different parts of the county are expected to experience varying rainfall patterns. Northern, western and parts of central and eastern Kajiado are forecast to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, while southern areas and other parts of central and eastern sub-counties face below-average precipitation.
The national forecast indicates that a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole will be the main driver of this season’s weather, typically associated with drier conditions across East Africa. There is also a 55-60 per cent chance of La Niña conditions developing, which could further suppress rainfall.
Ogada advised farmers to shift to drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties while emphasizing the need for water harvesting during occasional storms to survive the expected long dry spells.
“The combination of below-average rain, poor distribution, and higher temperatures signals a high risk of water and pasture stress,” he said.
Pastoralists have been urged to develop livestock management strategies, including destocking and identifying alternative water and fodder sources before the crisis deepens.
The meteorologist called on the County Government leadership and humanitarian partners to begin early preparations, including pre-positioning water, fodder and other essential resources to build community resilience.
“We urge the county leadership and humanitarian partners to take note of the elevated risk of drought conditions. Early action is crucial,” Ogada said.
The warning comes as Kenya continues to recover from previous drought cycles that left millions in need of food assistance and caused significant livestock losses across arid and semi-arid counties.
By Rop Janet
