The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned of heavy rains in selected parts of the country during the ongoing October –November –December rains.
Areas expected to be affected by the heavy downpour include those in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Highlands West of Rift Valley, West of Rift Valley and Highlands East of the Rift Valley according to the weather advisory released on October 22 2025.
The rains are slated to start on October 23 in the said regions before spreading to the northeastern regions from October 30.
Among counties that have been put on high alert from the expected downpour include Kisumu, Nyeri, Bomet, Isiolo, Nairobi, Turkana, Mandera, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo and Murang’a.
Overall, a total of 39 counties has been placed on high alert. “Rainfall currently affecting parts of the Lake Basin, the Rift Valley and the Highlands west of Rift Valley is expected to intensify to more than 30mm in 24 hours and spread to the Highlands of Rift Valley including Nairobi and parts of Southeastern lowlands on Thursday 23 October 2025.This is likely to mark the onset of the Short Rains Season (OND) 2025 over several parts of the country expect over parts of Southern lowlands and the coastal region as indicated in the OND 2025 Forecast,” read the statement, signed by KMD acting Director Kennedy Thiong’o.
People residing in the listed regions have been advised on the need to take precautionary measures during the rainy season to avert possible water-related catastrophes.
The advisory has also been shared with relevant emergency response agencies including the Presidency, Kenya Red Cross, National Disaster Management Operations Center and National Disaster Management Unit, Media and Council of Governors for proper preparedness and response in incase of disaster.
“Floodwaters may appear in places where it has not rained heavily, especially downstream. People are advised to avoid driving through or walking in moving water and open fields and not to shelter under trees and near grilled windows to minimise exposure to lightning strikes. People in landslide-prone areas especially in the slopes of Aberdare ranges, Mt Kenya and other sloppy areas over the western region should be on high alert,” continued the advisory.
The weatherman had announced that the much-awaited October-November-December rains could fall anywhere between the third and fourth week of this month.
This is according to a climatic outlook report released on September 29, 2025 by KMD.
The prediction was based on models developed from evolution of global sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) with the La Nina phenomenon favored to develop between October and December with a 71 per cent probability.
The La Nina drive is often associated with below-average rainfall.
“The onset of the seasonal rains is projected to occur between the third and fourth week of November over Southern lowlands and Coastal regions, although occasional rainfall is expected in October particularly over the Coastal strip and isolated areas in the Southeastern lowlands. Over the central parts of the country including Nairobi, onset is expected between the third and fourth week of October,” read September weather outlook report.
Temperatures for the month of October are however expected to be warmer than average across several parts of the country, apart from the western half, where near –to cooler-than –average conditions will be experienced.
The regions bordering the Highlands West of Rift Valley, the Lake Basin, the Central Rift Valley, the Northwest and most parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley are expected to receive near to above average rainfall.
“The outlook for October 2025 indicates that the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Northwest, most parts of the Highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County) and isolated areas in Marsabit are likely to experience near to above –average rainfall. In contrast, most of the Southeastern lowlands, the southern coast, a few areas of the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, and isolated areas of the Northeast and much of the Coastal region are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall,” continued the update.
Nyeri, Murang’a, Embu, Meru, Nairobi, Kiambu, Tharaka Nithi and parts of Laikipia are among counties expected to receive rains near to above the long-term average for the month.
In terms of impact, the expected near to above average rainfall in the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, Central and North Rift Valley will provide humidity sufficient to sustain agricultural production.
On the flip side, the rains will likely disrupt harvesting of crops that are still in the farms.
Residents living in regions where there will be sufficient rains during this season have been advised to take advantage of the downpour by planting trees and conducting environmental conservation measures.
“The expected rainfall over the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Basin, and the Central Rift Valley is likely to maintain conducive soil moisture for tree growth.
The public should therefore take advantage of these favorable conditions to plant trees and adopt measures to conserve environment .This recommendation aligns directly with Kenya’s Mission 15B (JazaMiti), a presidential campaign launched to plant 15 billion trees and restore degraded landscapes by 2032,”stated the advisory.
The Jaza Miti initiative is a presidential directive in which Safaricom in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change and Forest alongside other State ministries, came up with an ambitious nationwide drive to plant 15 billion trees by 2032.
By Samuel Maina
