The latest opinion polls by the Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research Company has placed former Prime Minister Raila Odinga ahead of Deputy president William Ruto in the run up to the August 9th general election.
The pollster indicates that if elections were held today Raila who is the flag bearer of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance would garner 46.7 of the votes compared to Ruto who scored a preference of 44.4 of the respondents.
The survey which was done between 21st and 26th July 2022, Azimio Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga maintains a slim lead of 46.7% as UDA’s Presidential Candidate William Ruto follows with 44.4% leaving Roots Party George Wajackoyah and Agano Party David Mwaure with a 1.8% and 0.1% preference respectively.
Lead researcher at TIFA Dr. Tom Wolf, stressed the voter turnout was critical in determining the winner in a tight race but also said the survey also revealed that most Kenyans were satisfied with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s legacy on infrastructure development.
“It depends on the voter turnout on the upcoming election to settle the difference between the two politicians,” cited Wolf, adding that as an organization, TIFA cannot predict if there will be an election runoff.
He further stated that there were reasons behind the support for the preferred presidential candidate and as indicated, Ruto gains from the aspect of economic situation related to growth and cost of living with a 16 % and 15% respectively with support from the poor, youth and the elderly at 13% preference.
By contrast, Odinga’s supporters frequently mentioned his experience and good governance credentials at 19% and 10% while devolution and corruption policies each having 5% and 6% support respectively.
On matters concerning the popularity of political coalitions, the Azimio La Umoja party leads with 47% popularity as the Kenya Kwanza Alliance follows with 42% support.
On the Political Party preference, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has a popularity of 41% followed by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 34% as Jubilee Party comes a distant third with 7% popularity.
According to Wolf, the data indicates that 73 percent of the total supporters surveyed from both the Raila Odinga and William Ruto supporters are satisfied with president Uhuru’s legacy irrespective of their political affiliations.
By Bruno Rono