Kajiado County is expected to receive above-average rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) 2026 short rains season, the County Meteorological Office has said.
County Director of Meteorological Services Benson Lubang’a Ogada said the rains are expected to become consistent during the third to fourth week of October and may continue into January 2027.
Ogada said the forecast was developed through a Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) process that brought together the national Kenya Meteorological Service forecast, localized climate analysis and Indigenous, Traditional and Community Knowledge.
He attributed the anticipated enhanced rainfall mainly to the strengthening El Niño event and the expected development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), while noting that other climate systems, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclones, could influence the intensity and distribution of rainfall.
“The rainfall distribution is expected to be generally fair to good in time and space, although there may be episodes of heavy rainfall and dry spells,” Ogada said.
He said warmer-than-average temperatures are also expected across the county during the season.
The anticipated rains are expected to improve water availability, pasture regeneration and agricultural production, particularly in the largely arid and semi-arid parts of the county.
However, Ogada cautioned residents to prepare for possible risks associated with heavy rainfall, including flash floods, waterlogging, soil erosion and damage to infrastructure.
The rains could also increase the prevalence of water- and vector-borne diseases, he said.
Residents, farmers and pastoralists were urged to prepare early by harvesting and storing water, putting measures in place to mitigate flooding and following official weather advisories issued on a weekly and daily basis.
County departments and other stakeholders were also encouraged to incorporate the forecast into their planning and preparedness measures.
Ogada said the county should take advantage of the expected favourable rainfall while remaining vigilant to extreme weather events.
“Kajiado should prepare for a wetter-than-normal OND 2026 season while remaining alert to heavy rainfall events, dry spells and warmer temperatures,” he said.
The scientific forecast has also been supported by observations from indigenous traditional weather experts, who say changes in the natural environment point to a wet season ahead.
Maasai elders, after conducting traditional observations, including examining the intestines of a slaughtered sheep, predicted above-average rainfall in the county.
Traditional weather expert Moses Ole Nkinaai said the condition and alignment of the sheep’s intestines, flowering of indigenous trees and changes in animal behaviour were among the indicators pointing to heavy rains.
“According to the alignment of the sheep’s intestines, the county will receive above-average rainfall. Indigenous trees such as Acacia, oltepesi and olng’arooji have also started flowering, while the movement of birds and ants and the behaviour of livestock all depict that there will be heavy rains in the next few weeks,” Ole Nkinaai said.
by Diana Meneto
