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Kenya bracing for a 5th consecutive failed rainy season

Kiambu County for the next one week will experience occasional cold and cloudy conditions with a few places experiencing minimal rains over the high grounds.

 

According to the County Director of Meteorological department services, Magdalene Gateri Sunny and also dry conditions is expected mostly over low ground regions

 

Speaking to KNA on the weekly forecast, she also confirmed that the regional forecast for the next seven days will also see intermittent cloudiness at times accompanied by light rains expected in the morning hours while the afternoon’s showers are likely to occur over a few places and nights expected to be partly cloudy.

 

Meanwhile, the Greater horn of Africa countries which include Kenya are likely to experience failed rains according to Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD’S) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC),

 

ICPAC says that Kenya is among 3 countries, Ethiopia and Somali who are expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the year while poor conditions are also likely to extend to most parts of Uganda and Tanzania and other parts of Eritrea.

 

According to the ICPAC, October to December (OND) 2022 forecast shows high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

 

Announcing this during an IGAD meeting, Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director noted that temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average across most of the region.

 

He reiterated the importance of the October to December season in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where it contributes up to 70 percent of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya.

 

“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the 5th consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa. In Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe”, he said.

 

Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary (IGAD) stated that despite the organization together with partners FAO and WFP, announced to the world that 50 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity in the seven IGAD countries, the severity of the situation is dire.

 

“Today, considering this grim climate forecast, conflicts in the region and in Ukraine, and macroeconomic challenges, I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors, humanitarian, and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather the worst of this crisis,” Dr Gebeyehu said

 

ICPAC  is also estimating that the start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much of the eastern parts of the region, including Eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, much of Burundi, and Tanzania.

 

On the other hand, parts of Western Kenya, northern Somalia, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Rwanda, and northern Tanzania are indicated to experience a normal to early onset.

 

ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organisation. Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions customized for the Greater Horn of Africa.

 

Seven out of the eight models used by ICPAC’s scientists indicate a drier OND 2022 season, thus increasing the reliability of the forecast.

By Wangari Ndirangu

 

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